Humans Will Go Extinct within 30 Years, Study Warns


A new report has warned there's an existential risk to humanity from the climate crisis within the coming decades, and a "high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end" over the next three decades unless urgent action is taken.

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The report, published by Australian thinktank the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, outlines an apocalyptic scenario that could see conditions "beyond the threshold of human survivability" across much of our planet by 2050. Their analysis calculates the existential climate-related security risk to Earth through a scenario set 30 years into the future.

The report refuses to downplay its bleak assessment of what could happen, warning of "an existential risk to civilization [..] posing permanent large negative consequences to humanity that may never be undone, either annihilating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtailing its potential."

The authors argue we are now in a unique situation with no precise historical equivalent, with temperatures unlike anything humanity has ever experienced, and a population of nearly 8 billion people. This requires us to work towards avoiding catastrophic possibilitiesrather than looking at probabilities, as learning from mistakes is not an option when it comes to existential risks. 
With that in mind, they propose a plausible and terrifying "2050 scenario" whereby humanity could face irreversible collapse in just three decades. So, here goes:

2020-2030
Governments fail to act on the evidence that the Paris Agreement isn't enough to keep Earth's temperature from rising, and will "lock in at least 3°C of warming". As projected by previous studies, carbon dioxide levels have reached 437 parts per million, which hasn't been seen in the last 20 million years. The planet warms by 1.6°C (2.8°F).

2030-2050
Emissions peak in 2030 and are reduced. However, carbon cycle feedbacks and the continued use of fossil fuels see temperatures rise by 3°C (5.4°F) by 2050.

2050
By 2050 there's a scientific consensus that we reached the tipping point for ice sheets in Greenland and the West Antarctic well before 2°C (3.6°F) of warming, and for widespread permafrost at 2.5°C (4.5°F). A "Hothouse Earth" scenario plays out that sees Earth's temperatures doomed to rise by a further 1°C (1.8°F) even if we stopped emissions immediately.

At this point the human impact is off the scale. Fifty-five percent of the global population are subject to more than 20 days a year of lethal heat conditions beyond that which humans can survive. North America suffers extreme weather events including wildfires, drought, and heatwaves. Monsoons in China fail, the great rivers of Asia virtually dry up, and rainfall in central America falls by half.
Deadly heat conditions across West Africa persist for over 100 days a year, and poorer countries are unable to provide enough artificially-cooled environments for their populations to be viable. Food production is severely affected, and inadequate to feed the global population. More than a billion people are displaced.

The knock-on consequences affect national security, as the scale of the challenges involved, such as pandemic disease outbreaks, are overwhelming. Armed conflicts over resources may become a reality, and have the potential to escalate into nuclear war.

In the worst case scenario, a scale of destruction the authors say is beyond their capacity to model, there is a "high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end".

With these horrific possibilities in mind for our near future, the authors recommend nations "urgently examine the role that the national security sector can play in providing leadership and capacity for a near-term, society-wide, emergency mobilization of labor and resources, of a scale unprecedented in peacetime, to build a zero-emissions industrial system and draw down carbon to protect human civilization."

It is doable. The most recent IPCC report lays out a future if we limit global heating to 1.5°C instead of the Paris Agreement's 2°C. There are ways we can prevent this future, we just need to act now.  

14 comments:

  1. the frog will eventually boil to death as the heat gradually rises rather than jump out..to where?

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    1. There is NO climate emergency! https://www.iceagenow.info/there-is-no-climate-emergency/

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    2. The temperature chart shown is not accurate. Satellites can see how fast the planet is warming. The top 10 hottest years have all fallen within the last 10 years. The rate of warming is increasing as permafrost melts and releases methane. As the melting accelerates so too will the increase in temperature. The following is a good visual on just how fast the planet is warming. It is well beyond and variation in sunspots. At any rate, it would take a decade more for the slight variations in the sun's temperature to affect the Earth, and every planet in the solar system would be affected. This is not the case.

      https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

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  2. welcome to mankind, the dumbest smart animal in the planet.

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  3. Hell ya. Sounds like good times ahead. I love a challenge.

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  4. where is THANOS and THE INFINITY GAUNTLET at???..sure as hell we NEED THE SNAP now!😂😂😂

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  5. Have you seen what China and India and a lot of the eastern and middle east countries put into our air and water as pollution, that is not easy to take out of the air and water. You can barely breath in some of those countries and those countries need to stop polluting, but I don't think we can get them to or they can really stop their polluting. The U.S. is the best country to hold down pollution of our air and water but we do have some things to stop. The earth itself, pollutes the air and water with methane, carbon dioxide produced by all the animals and other producers from volcanos, forest fires, and from the organisms in the oceans.

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  6. The goals of the Green New Deal are worthy. However, there are much faster, simpler, less expensive, better ways to accomplish them.
    The first objective must be to replace fossil fuels much faster than present approaches can manage. A handful of Green Swans can do this seemingly impossible job. Green Swans are highly improbable, hard-to-believe, innovations with enormous impact.
    Water can soon replace gasoline, diesel & jet fuel, to run engines. Conversion will be cheap and easy. See the work of H2 Global at H2GE.com
    Vehicles running on water can be power plants when suitably parked, selling electricity.
    No government program is required. And the savings to the average driver plus new income from selling power will make it impossible to stop. A bus will tour the nation next year running on water taken from humidity in the air. No need to refuel. This one breakthrough will change the entire world as fast as hand held devices. See aesopinstitute.org
    Engines have been invented that need no fuel. They will run on ambient heat a huge untapped reservoir of solar energy. A prototype has been designed based on solid, but little known, new science. It will power a Heat Pump air conditioner that needs no refrigerant. Variations can supplement or replace intermittent wind and solar photovoltaic systems everywhere on the planet.
    Room temperature superconductors exist but have never been recognized. They might initiate a second industrial revolution.
    Green Swans are being born and will generate hope!

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  7. I give us less that 5 yrs
    https://kevinhester.live/2018/04/05/connecting-the-dots-on-the-unfolding-6th-great-extinction/

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  8. Couldn’t stop laughing �� the Us is the best country to hold down pollution! I assume you live in the US ? A dysfunctional state run by a maniacal climate denier! Hilarious

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  9. "Collapse the Only Realistic Scenario"featuring Arthur Keller, Guy McPherson and me
    https://kevinhester.live/2019/09/05/collapse-the-only-realistic-scenario/

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